Forecasting
Trends on Hybrid Car Sales
by SolveYourProblem.com
When
analyzing sales trends on hybrids, there is no doubt opinions
are mixed. Some of the most educated analysts are disagreeing
about the forecast on hybrids. There is a deadlock between
the experts, with each side unwilling to budge. We can wait
for the results or make up our own minds. But in the meantime
however, knowing how each side feels about the forecast can
help the public form their own opinion on the matter.
Some
researchers feel that the main variable in the trend of
car sales is the rising prices of gasoline. While most consumers
are complaining about their gas guzzling cars and sport utility
vehicles, it is questionable whether car sales will be affected
by the high prices. There is a group of experts that believe
that even though gas prices are higher than ever, they are
still not high enough to influence car sales substantially.
They argue that consumers love their large vehicles so much
that although they are complaining, they will still continue
to drive them and purchase more like them. They estimate gas
prices would have to increase to prices above $4 for there
to be a substantial effect on the sales of hybrids.
Other
experts however reveal that their studies show that at
least one in six buyers have changed their minds about
planned
vehicle purchases due to rising gasoline prices. These studies
suggest that the sales of vehicles that require less gasoline
will raise at least enough to mimic this study’s findings.
The experts on this side of the argument think consumers are
most likely motivated to purchase hybrids by gasoline prices
and are acting logically.
Manufacturers
are likely to agree with those thinking hybrid sales will
increase this year. The main determining factor
for manufacturers is the fact that there are waiting lists
already for new hybrid vehicles. The Toyota Prius and the Honda
Civic hybrids are among some of the most popular and have extensive
waiting lists. With the addition of several sports utility
models to the list of hybrids available, there is no doubt
in the minds of the manufacturers that hybrid sales are destined
to rise. Some manufacturers have even been so bold to predict
sales doubling.
The
fact is that at this time however, trucks are still selling
much better than cars. Hybrid models of sports utility vehicles
and truck models will have to completely blow everything else
out of the water to even catch up with regular truck sales.
So far there has been no evidence this will happen.
Researchers
do agree however that each year there will be increases
in the sales of hybrids. The argument is not over
whether or not there will be increases really, but about how
much of an increase will be present. Some researchers feel
with incentives being offered to consumers that buy hybrids,
there is more expectation of an increase in sales. With more
states offering free parking and tax incentives for hybrid
owners, the appeal for hybrid purchases are greater than ever.
Another
factor swaying sales is the passage of “clean-air” laws
in many states. These laws will turn consumers to truck
alternatives, whether they like it or not. Last year hybrids
only accounted for 0.5 percent of the market, however most
experts are forecasting that by 2012 they will account for
at least 3.5 percent of the market.
Most of this change is expected to come from the West Coast
of the United States. The West Coast tends to be more aware
and involved in environment issues than other areas, as a whole.
Therefore, it is likely that most of the increases will come
from consumers in this area. The increase is likely due to
the effort by government to focus on the benefits of hybrid
vehicles.
With more hybrid alternatives being offered to today’s consumer,
it is only logical to think hybrid sales will increase
moderately. Not taking gas prices into consideration, it is likely the
increase in environmental education is having an impact on
many consumers. If a consumer can feel great about a vehicle
that saves them money and is sensitive to the environment,
they are more likely to buy it. If the government is also offering
tax and parking incentives, they will definitely buy it.
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SolveYourProblem.com : 2007
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